ACCS Weekly Meeting - Visiting Speaker
Place: Room 621/622, GP South (Building 78)
Time: Thursday 1 March 2007, 10:30 Morning Tea, 11:00am
Seminar
Speaker: Mark Bowden, ACCS PhD Candidate
Title: 'Information Contagion and Financial Prices'
Abstract:
People enjoy discussing finance markets. There is also
evidence that these discussions effect the investment
decisions of individuals. While interaction seems to be an
important aspect of investment behaviour, at the very least
among small investors, the efficient market hypothesis is
predominantly concerned with information efficiency, i.e.
the speed at which new information is incorporated into the
stock price. In this paper a simple artificial market is
developed whereby 'sentiment' investors trade with each
other as well as with a 'fundamentals' trader. The sentiment
investor differs from the technical trader usually used in
such a model. They buy and sell based on their level of
comfort in the market rather than hard and fast trading
rules. In this way, they better mimic the trading of the
typical 'mum and dad' investor. It is shown that such a
model can offer some explanation into the kurtosis and
persistence characteristics of volatility in returns
generated in financial markets. It may also offer some
insights into the momentum effect of generally rising or
falling markets commonly referred to as bull and bear
markets. However, it is also shown that herd behaviour among
sentiment investors cannot explain the formation of bubbles
in markets if they face liquidity constraints.